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动力与纽带：计量统计学在法庭科学领域的创新应用

Motivation and Ties: Innovative Application of Econometric Statistics in the Field of Forensic Science

刑事司法科学与治理 / 2022,3(2)：91-101 / 2023-01-28 269 297

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• 作者： 张鹏辉      王炜     
• 单位：

  甘肃政法大学司法警察学院（公安分院），兰州

• 关键词： 计量统计学；法庭科学；贝叶斯定理；鉴定意见
• Econometric statistics; Forensic science; Bayes theorem; Forensic appraisal
• 摘要： 随着信息科技的快速发展，社会治理法治化程度不断提高，法庭科学在诉讼活动中扮演着不可忽视的角色。面对法庭科学在司法实践中存在的一系列问题，诸如鉴定委托环节突出客观公正、缺乏能力筛选；实施环节注重效率、缺乏程序监管；质证环节鉴定人往往借助科学证据的光环、使用“一词多义”等思维方式规避法官、律师的认知能力；法官过度依赖鉴定意见的科学性等。为此，创新应用计量统计学揭开法庭科学的“面纱”，诠释法庭科学的规律和涵义，是提高法官对鉴定意见认知能力的有效途径。结合当前国内外法庭科学研究现状，从计量统计学的基础理论与实务研究出发，借助“量化评价”“贝叶斯推理”等模式理论提出构建法庭科学“计量统计分析模型”的设想，以计量统计学为纽带推动法庭科学与证据法良性互促发展，进一步推动法庭科学综合服务信息平台开发与建设，打破计量统计学在经济学领域的局限性，最大限度地优化法官对鉴定意见的审查机制、提高其对法庭科学的认识能力，力求破 除我国法庭科学在计量统计学领域的新突破，进而为推动法庭科学高质量发展提供参考路径。
• In the face of a series of problems existing in the judicial practice of forensic science, such as the entrusting link of appraisal highlights objectivity and impartiality and lacks the ability to screen, the implementation link pays attention to efficiency and lacks procedural supervision; the appraiser in the crossexamination link often evades the cognitive ability of judges and lawyers with the help of the halo of scientific evidence and the use of “polysemy”; judges rely too much on the scientific nature of expert opinions, and so on. For this reason, the innovative application of econometric statistics to unveil the “veil” of forensic science and interpret the law and meaning of forensic science is an effective way to improve judges’ cognitive ability of expert opinions. Combined with the current situation of forensic science research at home and abroad, starting from the basic theory and practical research of econometric statistics, with the help of “quantitative evaluation”, “Bayesian reasoning” and other model theories, this paper puts forward the idea of constructing a “econometric statistical analysis model” of forensic science, taking econometric statistics as a link to promote the benign mutual development of forensic science and evidence law, and further promote the development and construction of the comprehensive service information platform of forensic science. Break the limitation of econometric statistics in the field of economics, optimize the examination mechanism of judges’ appraisal opinions to the maximum, improve their understanding ability of forensic science, and strive to break the new breakthrough of forensic science in the field of econometric statistics, so as to provide a reference path for promoting the high-quality development of forensic science.
• DOI： https://doi.org/10.35534/cjsg.0302013
• 引用：

  张鹏辉，王炜．动力与纽带：计量统计学在法庭科学领域的创新应用［J］．刑事司法科学与治理，2022，3（2）：91-101．