鉴定意见表述的似然比方法研究

Study of Likelihood Ratio Method for Evaluation of Expert Opinions

刑事司法科学与治理 / 2022,3(1)：89-95 / 2022-06-23 21 18

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• 作者： 王青¹      杨敏¹'²     
• 单位：

  1．中南财经政法大学刑事司法学院，武汉；
  2．司法鉴定技术应用与社会治理学科创新基地，武汉

• 关键词： 鉴定意见；似然比；科学性
• Expert opinion; Likelihood ratio; Scientificity
• 摘要： 鉴定意见作为科学证据，是侦查人员破案、法官判案的重要依据。当前鉴定意见所采用的二元判决以及可能性等级表述方式存在着夸大证明力和科学性不足等问题。DNA 检验鉴定意见表述所采用的似然比方法，引起国内外法庭科学家的关注。鉴定意见结果以似然比方式表述相较传统意见表述模式，具有天然的合理性和科学性。本文较为系统地分析了传统鉴定意见模式存在的问题，以及似然比鉴定意见模式的优势与不足，为我国司法领域中科学证据评价模式转变提供借鉴作用。
• As scientific evidence, expert opinion is an important basis for investigators to solve cases and judges to decide cases. The current binary verdict and the level of probability used in expert opinions have problems such as exaggerated probability and insufficient scientificity, etc. The likelihood ratio method used in the presentation of DNA test expert opinions has attracted the attention of court scientists at home and abroad. The likelihood ratio method is a naturally scientific and legitimate way of expressing the results of identification opinions compared with the traditional mode of expressing opinions. This paper analyzed the problems of the traditional expert opinion model and the advantages and shortcomings of the likelihood ratio expert opinion model systematically, so as to provide reference for the transformation of the scientific evidence evaluation model in the judicial field in China.
• DOI： http://doi.org/10.35534/cjsg.0301013
• 引用：

  王青，杨敏．鉴定意见表述的似然比方法研究［J］．刑事司法科学与治理，2022，3（1）：89-95．