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绿证—碳市场协同的系统动力学模型构建与模拟：以广东为例

Construction and Simulation of System Dynamics Model of Green Certificate-Carbon Market Synergy: A Case Study of Guangdong

Progress in Social Sciences / 2024,6(2): 461-477 / 2024-05-16 289 359

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• Authors: 李金莉¹      杨旭³      张恰恰²      杨雨瑶¹      纪伊琳¹      冯磊¹      祁舒喆¹      傅愈⁴      潘峰¹     
• Information:

  1. 广东电网有限责任公司计量中心，广州；
  2. 中国科学院广州能源研究所，广州；
  3. 沈阳化工大学机械与动力工程学院，沈阳；
  4. 深圳市云天可持续科学研究中心，深圳

• Keywords: Green certificate market; Carbon trading market; System dynamics; Power supply structure; Auction ratio 绿证市场；碳交易市场；系统动力学；电源结构；拍卖比例
• Abstract: Driven by the “dual carbon” goal, it is of great significance to realizethe effective synergy between green certificates and carbon markets to promotethe transformation of the energy structure. This study aims to explore howthe synergy between the green certificate market and the carbon market canaccelerate the low-carbon transition of the power sector in Guangdong Province.Firstly, the basic principle of synergy between carbon trading and greencertificate trading is analyzed, and then the role of green certificates in carbonemission reduction is discussed, and the equivalent interaction mechanism ofcarbon emission reductions corresponding to green certificate accounting isproposed, and then the system dynamics model is used to evaluate the impact ofdifferent carbon quota auction proportions on the energy structure of the power industry from 2020 to 2030 based on the actual data of Guangdong Provincein 2020. Finally, the simulation results show that the effective synergy betweengreen certificate and carbon market not only promotes the consumption ofrenewable energy and the low-carbon transformation of the energy structure,but also provides a reference for policymakers to strengthen the marketmechanism and policy support, aiming to optimize the energy structure andpromote the development of clean energy. 在“双碳”目标的推动下，实现绿证—碳市场的有效协同对于促进能源结构的转型具有重要意义。本研究旨在探讨绿证市场与碳市场的协同如何加速广东省电力行业的低碳转型。首先，分析了碳交易与绿证交易协同的基本原理，进而，探讨了绿证在碳减排中的作用，并提出了绿证核算对应的碳减排量等价交互机制，随后，利用系统动力学模型基于2020年广东省实际数据，评估了2020至2030年不同碳配额拍卖比例情景下对电力行业能源结构的影响。最后，仿真结果表明，绿证—碳市场的有效协同不仅促进了可再生能源的消纳及能源结构的低碳转型，同时为政策制定者提供了加强市场机制和政策支持的参考，旨在优化能源结构和推动清洁能源发展。
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.35534/pss.0602037
• Cite: 李金莉，杨旭，张恰恰，等．绿证—碳市场协同的系统动力学模型构建与模拟：以广东为例［J］．社会科学进展，2024，6（2）：461-477.