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波普尔、哈耶克历史论和科学论批判——基于系统科学与易道圜道观的再审视

A Critique of Popper and Hayek’ s Historical and Scientific Theories：A Re-examination Based on Systems Science and Yi-Dao Circularity

范泽礼

Progress in Social Sciences / 2026,8(6): 512-518 / 2026-06-29 12 7

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• Information:

  广东荣愿律师事务所，东莞

• Keywords:
  Historical determinism; Open complex giant system; Circularity; Yi-Dao philosophy; Systems science; Consistency of name and reality
  历史决定论; 开放复杂巨系统; 圜道; 易道哲学; 系统科学; 名实一致
• Abstract: Based on their liberal stance, Popper and Hayek criticized historical determinism and subsequently raised comprehensive doubts about the doctrine of macro-historical laws, which stands in clear opposition to the historical determinism within the socialist theoretical system. From the perspective of Qian Xuesen’s open complex giant system theory, this paper points out that the fundamental error of Popper‘s theory lies in examining human history as an open complex giant system with the methodological premise of reductionism and linear causality, committing logical fallacies of misattribution and overgeneralization. By systematically reviewing Chinese and Western critiques of Popper- Hayek theories, and by integrating Qian Xuesen’s systems science system, particularly the “meta-synthesis method from qualitative to quantitative”, along with the “following heaven and imitating earth”(fa tian xiang di) system view of Yi-Dao philosophy and circularity thinking, this paper demonstrates that human history, as an open complex giant system integrating social and human body systems, follows macro-regulatory laws while preserving space for stochastic behavior of subsystems, enabling high-probability prediction of macro trends through systems science methods. This paper re-establishes the foundation of scientific view: science resides not in narrow falsifiability, but in the consistency of name and reality and practical effectiveness within the systems science framework. The “spiral upward”movement pattern of circularity exhibits inherent logical alignment with the Marxist law of negation of negation. The practice of socialism is precisely the inevitable product of following the laws of circularity. 波普尔、哈耶克基于自身自由主义立场批判历史决定论，进而对宏观历史规律学说提出全面质疑，与社会主义理论体系中的历史决定论形成明显分歧。本文从钱学森开放复杂巨系统理论的视角出发，指出波普尔理论的根本错误在于以还原论和线性因果的方法论前提审视人类历史这一开放复杂巨系统，犯了归因错误和以偏概全的逻辑谬误。通过系统梳理中西学界对波普尔-哈耶克理论的批判（包括韩东屏的制度决定论和阎孟伟对唯物史观历史决定论的辩护），并结合钱学森系统科学体系（尤其是“从定性到定量综合集成法”），以及易道哲学“法天象地”的系统观和圜道思维，本文论证：人类历史作为社会系统与人体系统相统一的开放复杂巨系统，其演化既遵循宏观调控规律，又保留子系统的随机行为空间，宏观趋势可依系统科学方法进行高概率预测。本文重新奠定科学观基础：科学不在于狭隘的可证伪性，而在于系统科学框架下的名实相符与实践有效性。圜道“螺旋式上升”的运动模式与马克思主义否定之否定规律具有内在逻辑契合，社会主义实践正是顺应圜道规律的必然产物。
• DOI: 10.35534/pss.0806090 (registering DOI)
• Cite: 范泽礼．波普尔、哈耶克历史论和科学论批判——基于系统科学与易道圜道观的再审视［J］．社会科学进展，2026，8（6）：512-518.